The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0912 ET - U.S. natural gas futures fall back after rising the previous two sessions with support from extended summer weather. "This market appears to be seeing some bearish spillover from the sharp decline in the oil complex," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The possibility of another weather-driven spike higher will diminish as the October contract moves to the front of the curve this week, the firm says. The market "will require some evidence of production slippage or an increase in export activity if the sizable storage surplus is to see a meaningful reduction in the coming weeks." Nymex natural for September delivery is down 2.8% to $2.704/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0853 ET - Oil futures lose more ground with the market seeing stepped-up U.S. economic pressure on Iran more likely to lead to negotiations than military escalation. "Some signs of diplomacy out here in what is a long market and likely making it worse as Pakistan is delivering a peace offer to Iran and the U.S. is returning staff to their posts in the Middle East," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. "The near term looks like the U.S. Treasury has bought some time for the oil market in terms of generating enough fear to end the buying for now from speculators." The New York Times reported that the U.S. is preparing to return diplomats to their posts in the Middle East. WTI is off 3.1% at $82.42 a barrel, and Brent is down 3% at $89.40 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0524 ET - Gold Fields' first-half earnings are unlikely to deliver material changes to consensus expectations, J.P. Morgan analysts write. This is after the miner backed its guidance and delivered results in line with its trading update, they say. Shares are up 0.9% to 76,493 South African cents. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0523 ET - Asian equities closed mixed Tuesday and oil dropped. Investors were cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole economic symposium as well as coming Nvidia earnings. South Korea's Kospi rebounded from earlier losses to end 0.7% higher, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended flat and China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell 2.0% to $83.33 a barrel, while front-month Brent crude oil futures were 1.8% lower at $90.49 a barrel. Bitcoin topped $80,000 for the first time since May and was last 1.2% higher at $79,853.78 as fresh investor interest in the so-called debasement trade brought growing support for the cryptocurrency as a dollar hedge. Spot gold was relatively stable after the recent rally, last shedding 0.5% to $4,627.82 a troy ounce (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0359 ET - Copper prices tick lower but hold above $14,200 a metric ton after fresh withdrawals from London warehouses fueled concerns over tight inventories. "Recent deliveries into LME warehouses helped ease some of the tightness," analysts at ING say. "However, the latest withdrawal suggests that any recovery in inventories may prove temporary." Prices remain supported by strong flows into the U.S. as high premiums encourage shipments into the country, tightening availability elsewhere. In early European trading, three-month copper futures on the LME slip 0.1% to $14,235.50 a ton, but are up more than 4% on the month. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0344 ET - China Hongqiao's margin resilience could be supported by likely elevated aluminum prices amid persistent supply-demand tightness for the metal, says DBS Group Research in commentary. The Chinese aluminum company's 1H earnings rose 39% on year, in line with DBS's estimates, the analysts say. The company's vertically integrated supply chain provides stable, low-cost bauxite and alumina feedstock, which could enable it to maximize earnings from rising aluminum prices, say the analysts. They also expect China's capacity ceiling for aluminum to continue to enforce structural supply discipline in the country. DBS maintains its buy rating and target price of 45.00 Hong Kong dollars. Shares drop 1.3% to HK$23.58. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0343 ET - European natural-gas prices trade above 68 euros a megawatt-hour, their highest in more than three years, as supply constraints and low storage levels continue to worry investors. Inventories across the European Union are currently 63% full, well below the five-year average of 80%. "At the current rate, it will be difficult for the EU to hit even the lower storage target of 75% ahead of the heating season," analysts at ING say. "This raises the prospects of forced buying, increasing upside risk for gas prices." In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract slips 0.2% to 68.10 euros a megawatt-hour, but is up 7% on the week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0331 ET - Gold prices are broadly stable after hitting their highest level since mid-May on Monday, as investors await U.S. inflation data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh later this week. In early European trading, New York futures are flat at $4,696.40 a troy ounce. "Renewed U.S. fiscal concerns, uncertainty around Treasury-market credibility and the dollar index remaining below 99 kept demand firm, despite the U.S. 10-year yield staying close to 4.7%," analysts at Sucden Financial say. "Gold now needs to hold above $4,700 an ounce to preserve the stronger tone." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0311 ET - Gold prices retreated in Asian afternoon trade, on a firmer dollar and Treasury yields, says Bas Kooijman, chief executive and asset manager of DHF Capital S.A. in a note. Investors are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, he says. Any hints from policymakers could move markets at a time when forward guidance remains limited, he adds. Spot gold is 0.3% lower at $4,638.00 a troy ounce.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2228 ET - Copper declines in Asia trading. The market for the base metal appears to be increasingly difficult to interpret, given a new set of forces affecting prices, centered on geographic arbitrage and trade policy, say Societe Generale analysts in a note. Limited mine supply and growing demand from sectors such as artificial intelligence have generally supported prices, they note. However, tariff-related arbitrage has redirected large volumes of copper inventories toward the U.S., affecting stockpiles elsewhere and making the market difficult to analyze based on traditional frameworks alone, they add. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange falls 0.3% to $14,225.50 a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2225 ET - Iron ore edges higher in early Asian trading, with the most-traded contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange up 0.1% at 716.0 yuan a ton. Coking coal, a key steelmaking ingredient, is in short supply in China, after a deadly mine explosion in May, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Both iron ore and coking coal are ingredients for making steel. Prices are also likely supported by the prospect of mills restocking ahead of China's National Day holiday, they add. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2158 ET - Gold's bullish momentum still has room to run, Citi Research's Kenny Hu says in a research report. The commodities strategist sees tailwinds in the eventual resolution of the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz, lower real U.S. rates and a less hawkish Fed. Citi raises its gold-price target for up to 3 months to $4,800 an ounce from $4,500, while leaving its target for the 6-12 month horizon unchanged at $5,000 an ounce. However, gold price may face "short-term volatility ahead around binary risks" at this week's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Fed Chair Warsh is slated to speak, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.5% higher at $4,673.57 an ounce.