Why Nvidia Stock's Losing Streak is a Good Thing

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Nvidia shareholders don’t look to be particularly excited about its coming earnings report. That could be just what the chip maker needs to finally get some momentum.

Nvidia shares were up 2.4% at $213.45 in early trading Tuesday. That’s not bad for a company with a market value of more than $5 trillion but it would only recoup a small part of the losses recorded over a seven-day losing streak through Monday, its worst such run in more than four years.

Investors might be wary of recent history. Nvidia shares declined in each of the last four sessions immediately following its earnings report, which will come after the market close on Wednesday.

But there’s reason to hope for a change. At least that’s the view of Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse, who reiterated a target price of $350 on the stock in a research note Monday.

“Nvidia is being priced today as if the AI buildout is a zero-sum game and Nvidia is losing. We think it’s the opposite,” Muse wrote. “If you believe in the [investment case], it is time to close your eyes and go massively long Nvidia. Investors are underweight Nvidia and when this stock starts moving, we think it is going to move very, very fast.”

Some of the concerns for Nvidia have been about a loss of market share to rivals. But Muse argued that even if Nvidia’s current roughly 80% AI chip market share were to fall to 60%—a pessimistic scenario—it could still be generating data-center revenue of more than $1 trillion in 2030. That would imply the company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around eight times its forecast profits by the end of the decade.

There’s no guarantee that Nvidia’s earnings report will be the moment that momentum shifts but a lower bar to success can only be a help.

Nvidia was a Barron’s stock pick in May when it was trading around $226.

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