Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. has released a research report indicating that scenic spot operators are experiencing increasingly divergent performance, with effective operating days, high-margin project operations, and secondary consumption conversion rates emerging as the key drivers of profit release. The extended Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday period is expected to boost overall travel volume, though price and volume performance may continue to vary across the sector.
The scenic spot sector's stock prices remain at relatively low levels overall, and the firm recommends focusing on two main investment lines: "low valuation safety margins" and "project catalyst realization." Investors are advised to watch for targets with low valuations, operational resilience, and potential catalysts and flexibility.
Demand Remains Resilient, but Per-Capita Spending Still Constrains Industry Growth
In the first half of 2026, domestic residents made 3.463 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while total domestic travel spending reached 3.21 trillion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year. Per-capita spending stood at 926.942 yuan, reflecting a 3.3% decline year-on-year. The tourism industry is showing a pattern where visitor traffic growth outpaces consumer spending growth.
Scenic spot companies are seeing further performance divergence, with effective operating days, high-margin project operations, and secondary consumption conversion rates becoming critical to profit realization. Current sector stock prices have pulled back noticeably, and market expectations have cooled.
Summer Travel Season Past Midpoint: Demand Strengthens While Travel Costs Improve Marginally
Nationwide civil aviation passenger flight volume grew 1.3% year-on-year, passenger numbers increased 3.7%, and the load factor rose 1.6 percentage points to 86.0%. As weather disruptions subside, flights and passenger flow are recovering quickly. Combined with consecutive reductions in fuel surcharges and a 0.7% year-on-year decline in average ticket prices including taxes in July, this is expected to support demand in the latter half of the summer season and during upcoming holidays.
Extended Mid-Autumn and National Day Holidays Expected to Drive Overall Travel Growth, Though Price and Volume May Remain Divergent
In 2026, the two festivals together provide 10 days of holiday, two more than in 2025. Taking three days of leave between the two festivals can create a 13-day consecutive break, potentially unlocking demand for long-haul domestic travel, outbound trips, and in-depth tourism experiences. Considering that short-distance and surrounding-area travel account for a high proportion of Mid-Autumn Festival trips, and given the relatively high per-capita spending base from the previous year, tourism trip growth is likely to continue outpacing total spending growth.
Autumn Break Expanding from Pilot Programs: A New Window for Family Travel Emerges
During the 2025 autumn break in Zhejiang, Sichuan, Foshan, and other regions, travel orders, scenic spot tickets, and flight bookings all showed notable increases, initially validating the stimulating effect on family trips, study tours, and surrounding-area travel. In 2026, more provinces and cities are introducing or expanding autumn break arrangements, typically linking 2–3 working days with weekends to form 4–5 day holidays. This is expected to extend demand further into the traditional off-season following the National Day holiday.
Risk warnings: extreme weather conditions, consumer spending and per-capita spending falling short of expectations, and diversion of demand to outbound travel.