Market research indicates that during the afternoon close of asphalt futures trading on August 25, the main BU2609 contract settled at 4,712 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 100 yuan per ton from the previous settlement price. Open interest fell by 7,401 contracts to 47,678, while trading volume rose by 8,068 contracts to 88,778.

According to Zhuochuang Information's spot settlement prices for heavy-traffic asphalt, quotes were recorded across several regions: Northeast China at 4,730–4,750 yuan per ton, Shandong at 4,500–4,740 yuan per ton, South China at 4,730–4,950 yuan per ton, and East China at 4,720–4,870 yuan per ton. In the spot market yesterday, prices in the Northwest and Northeast regions largely stabilized, while other regions experienced varying degrees of upward adjustments.

The current fundamental landscape for asphalt remains notably strained. However, as signals of de-escalation emerge in the Middle East situation, the retreat in geopolitical premiums for crude oil has exerted downward pressure on the futures market. Despite this, asphalt has demonstrated relative resilience, and the short-term imbalance between supply and demand continues to warrant attention as a key issue awaiting resolution.

Strategy

Single-leg: Neutral, with a focus on developments in the Middle East situation.

Calendar spread: None

Cross-variety: None

Basis trading: None

Options: None

Risks

Geopolitical conflicts, significant volatility in crude oil prices, macroeconomic risks, overseas raw material supply risks, changes in asphalt terminal demand, and fluctuations in facility operating rates are all factors that could impact market conditions.