The upcoming first anniversary of the new national standard for electric bicycles has yielded its most tangible feedback through sales figures. In the final quarter of last year, consumers rushed to purchase e-bikes ahead of the policy deadline, pulling forward a portion of 2026 demand, which briefly boosted terminal sales and battery installations. Now, the implementation of the new national standard is accelerating industry upgrades and consolidation.

In the first half of the year, domestic sales of electric two-wheelers totaled 28.252 million units, a year-on-year decline of 12.6%. Among these, electric bicycle sales saw the steepest drop, recording negative growth for six consecutive months. A notable shift is underway: consumer demand is increasingly moving toward electric mopeds and high-end electric motorcycles, while electric bicycle demand faces short-term pressure during the transition period. For instance, Yadea's half-year report shows H1 electric bicycle sales of approximately 4.148 million units, down about 37.8% year-on-year, while electric scooter sales (mainly electric mopeds and electric motorcycles) reached 3.484 million units, up about 63.7%. Notably, the sales gap between Yadea's electric bicycles and electric motorcycles has narrowed from three times in the same period last year to less than one million units this year. The sharp decline in the electric bicycle segment is also the primary reason behind Yadea's approximate 5% revenue decrease in H1.

This "one decline, one rise" pattern reflects the broader industry trend. Beyond Yadea's weaker first-half performance, established players such as Aima and Luyuan have also experienced varying degrees of revenue decline. It is worth noting that the slowdown in electric bicycle sales has impacted battery installations. Reports indicate that lithium battery penetration in the two-wheeler market fell to single digits in the first half of this year. On one hand, the new national standard's reduced performance requirements have lowered the differentiation threshold for lithium battery adoption; on the other hand, rising lithium carbonate prices in H1 increased the cost of lithium battery integration.

Looking to the second half, consumer acceptance of the new national standard is improving, and the demand pulled forward earlier is gradually returning. Meanwhile, the counter-trend growth in the electric motorcycle market is expected to support earnings recovery for some companies. However, attention must also be paid to market changes from the reintroduction of the lithium battery consumption tax. Some argue that a 2%-4% cost increase is not significant, while others believe the tax differential between lithium and sodium/solid-state batteries will boost adoption of the latter. What impact will the consumption tax bring? For the standard 48V12Ah lithium battery currently used in electric bicycles, a 2%-4% tax is estimated to add tens to over a hundred yuan in costs. For industry leaders like Yadea and Aima, this can be absorbed through scale effects and internal optimization, making a widespread price surge unlikely in the short term. For companies like Niu Technologies and Ninebot, which entered the electric motorcycle business early, the tax can be offset through premium pricing in the high-end market.

For battery manufacturers, two strategies are emerging. First, deepening cooperation with terminal brands to jointly absorb the consumption tax or offering more flexible discounts in exchange for larger order volumes. Second, pivoting toward the high-end electric motorcycle market. Leading companies such as EVE Energy, Ampace, Xingheng Power, Gotion High-Tech, and BYD have all released relevant products. Notably, Xingheng's electric motorcycle lithium battery shipments surged 230% in H1, Ampace is deepening cooperation with Zhangxue Motorcycles in the electric motorcycle segment, and EVE Energy has expanded its electric motorcycle battery supply to Spain.

How Sodium and Solid-State Batteries Could Gain a Foothold

While lithium batteries face a 2%-4% consumption tax, sodium batteries and solid-state batteries enjoy a full consumption tax exemption until the end of 2028. This directly creates a 2%-4% cost advantage at the manufacturing level. For price-sensitive products like two-wheelers, this advantage could significantly influence manufacturers' procurement decisions. In the sodium battery space, the focus remains on the electric bicycle market. Leading manufacturers like Yadea have already achieved batch installations of sodium battery two-wheelers, while companies such as Chilwee and Zhongna Energy have either launched sodium battery production lines or are capable of mass supply. Xia Gang, Chairman of Zhongna Energy, believes that a terminal price difference of several dozen yuan is sufficient to alter consumer choices. With the 4% consumption tax on lithium batteries reinstated, costs will rigidly rise, while the "tax differential" during the sodium battery exemption period will translate into a relative cost advantage—a significant effect in a low-margin industry.

For semi-solid batteries, the future opportunity likely lies in the high-end electric motorcycle segment. The logic is to establish technical benchmarks and market validation by offering an experience far superior to ordinary lithium batteries. Since semi-solid batteries fall under the solid-state battery category, there is potential for future relaxation of consumption tax exemptions. In April this year, Yadea launched the Guanneng Starship II-200L, equipped with Talent New Energy's "Safe+" semi-solid battery solution, featuring a 72V109Ah battery system. As the new national standard and consumption tax policies continue to evolve, the two-wheeler battery market is poised to form a diversified landscape where lithium batteries, sodium batteries, and semi-solid batteries compete in distinct tiers while coexisting complementarily.